Sports Betting Podcast 7-9-2013 with Handicappers Ian Cameron and Erin Rynning | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Tags: MLB Ian Cameron Erin Rynning | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Yo! It's $20 Tuesday at Sportsmemo | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Tags: MLB Ian Cameron Erin Rynning | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
MLB Handicapping: Los Angeles Dodgers Dominating Division Lately | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Submitted by Stat Intelligence Lost amidst all the Puig-headed arguing about how great six-week stats have to be to earn an All-Star invitation?is the message that the Los Angeles Dodgers have been sending lately to the rest of the NL West. After Monday Night?s 6-1 victory in Arizona, the Dodgers are 7-4, with a 59-38 run differential in their last 11 ROAD games in the division. Not 7-4 with a split schedule. Seven of 11 with a big run differential only counting games away from home against the teams they need to beat to reach the playoffs. Strong stuff. The offense has been lethal lately with both Puig and Ramirez putting up monster numbers (they were 5 of 10 combined tonight with 2 runs scored and 2 RBI). Kershaw is the ace of the league. Greinke was back in form tonight. If recently acquired Nolasco from Florida can settle down the back end of the rotation?we could have a rags to riches story that moves very quickly. The Dodgers play two more games in Arizona before hosting Colorado for four games just before the All-Star Break. Their current overall run is 13-3 the last 16 games. Other quickies: *Feldman of Baltimore struggled tonight vs. Texas. He?s another great example of how mediocre AL pitchers can thrive in the National League. He drew raves in a half a season with the Cubs this year. That after a career 4.82 ERA as a starter in the American League. Two games now with the Orioles and his ERA is over 7.00 since they acquired him. One of the unmentioned things about Puig looking like Superman is that he?s doing it in Quadruple A. The mainstream media bends over backwards to not talk about the difference in leagues because they?re marketing product and promoting the sport. *Didn?t have time to dig through a lot of five inning stuff tonight. I was trying to come to a final conclusion about the NY Jets line mystery that I?ve mentioned a couple of times. Talked to a few people about it. No resolution?because it?s just something that can?t make sense if you work through it. The NY Jets can?t be 4-5 points worse than Tampa Bay, and 5 points worse than New England?though that?s what the early Cantor lines were suggesting based on their projected pointspreads. New England can?t be 10 points better than Buffalo, but only 5 points better than the Jets if Buffalo and the Jets look to be relatively evenly matched. There are ramifications for this if you were using Cantor?s numbers to estimate regular season win totals. If the Jets are 4-5 points worse than Tampa Bay, then they?re a 5.5-win team rather than a 6.5 win team (which is the current line for their Regular Season Win totals). If the Jets are only 5 points worse than New England?then either the Jets are more like a 7.5-win team?or the Patriots aren?t as good as their win total is suggesting. Use your own numbers. Tags: MLB Los Angeles Dodgers Stat Intelligence | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
LVH Sportsbook gears up for footbal season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Head's up for football bettors in the Las Vegas area. According to LVH oddsmaker Jay Kornegay, College Football Season O/U Wins, Games of the Year, and Conference Title odds while be available July 21 at 10:30 am PT. Also note that registration for LVH's SuperContest is underway. The entry fee is $1,500. Also note a few changes for this year... The 2013 LVH SuperContest will see a couple of changes. We have expanded the cash prize pool to the top 30 and the new breakdown will be listed on the SuperContest Rules page. In addition, the LVH SuperBook has increased the two bonuses. Anyone selecting over 67% or wins the mini-contest (best record over the last 3 weeks of the season) will now win an aggregate cash prize of $15,000. To be eligible for this year?s mini-contest, contestants must sign up before September 2nd. Tags: College Football NFL | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
College Football Betting: Season O/U Wins - Greek vs. 5Dimes | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Below is a chart of College Football Regular Season Over/Under Wins from The Greek and 5Dimes. Most of the numbers are similar with the only difference being a few cents worth of juice. There is however some varying opinion, most notably teams lined a flat 6 wins at the Greek are all lined 5.5 at 5Dimes (Iowa, Mississippi State, Missouri, Tennessee, and West Virginia). Also interesting is the price on Alabama. The Greek has the Crimson Tide at 11 wins but heavy juice (-200) towards the under. 5Dimes meanwhile lists Alabama at 11 wins but slightly towards the over (-120). There is also some opinion on USC with The Greek at a flat 9 wins and 5Dimes 9.5ov-125.
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The one where a nun walks into a casino to gamble with a bunch of stolen money | |||
| Stories about God's ?workers? stealing from the church till to fuel their gambling addiction never get old. This one involves a 68-year-old nun who pocketed over $100K. Sister Mary Anne Rapp will need to do more than a quick trip to confession to atone for her sins. She was sentenced to 90 days in jail and 100 hours of community service.Tags: College Football | |||
College Football Betting: Ted Roof takes over DC duties at Georgia Tech | |||
| Article from SI.com on Georgia Tech defensive coordinator Ted Roof, who played linebacker for the Yellow Jackets back in the mid-80's. Roof takes over for Al Groh who spent the last three years running his 3-4 defense. Tech, who returns eight defensive starters, will now switch to a 4-3. This?marks Roof's fifth DC gig over the last six years, the last of which at Penn State. From a points-per-game allowed perspective, Georgia Tech's defense has gotten progressively worse each of the last five seasons. Georgia Tech's PPG allowed (NCAA rank)? | |||
College Football Gambling: Strength of schedule rankings | |||
| Here?s a link?to strength of schedule rankings for the upcoming college football season. The first is the traditional model of opponent's winning percentage from the previous year. Using that formula Kentucky (103-50, 67.3%) tops the list followed by Arkansas (99-54, 64.7%) and Purdue (96-56, 63.2%). Phil Steele's SOS rankings are slightly different with Florida, Oklahoma, and California in the top three spots.Tags: College Football | |||
MLB Gambling News: Which is the Best Division in Baseball? | |||
| Submitted by Stat Intelligence Another topic fitting for our lawyer/judge conversation of late. Today SB Nation posted an article called ?The NL Central, Baseball?s Best Division.? That seemed odd, considering that: *Cincinnati fans are up in arms about how the Reds were squashed in their recent matchups with Oakland and Texas from the superior American League. The Redlegs went 1-4, getting outclassed on the scoreboard 23-11 *St. Louis fans were licking their own wounds after going 1-5 vs. the same two American League teams. Remember that the Cards were swept at home by the Rangers last weekend, before dropping two of three to the A?s this weekend. I mean?NOW?s the time you want to make the case that the NL Central is the best in baseball?! The American League has established superiority for several years now. Both the Reds and Cards just flunked their toughest litmus tests of the year against the superior league. In the meantime, the AL East has established itself as a true power. Everyone?s right around .500 or better (no weak spots), and the last place team has actually been one of the best in baseball over the past month. They?ve been playing each other lately, which makes it harder to see the AL East as dominant overall. But?that clearly seems like the strongest group top to bottom. The American League is the best league. The East is its best division. I tweeted back my disagreement with the premise when SB Nation posted its link. It became clear from a subsequent twitter conversation with the author that it was another of those web articles too common at SBN and Grantland where the headline writer significantly overstates what the author is saying because wild overstatements get hit counts?then the poor author has to say ?I never said that? even though it?s in his article?s headline. The author actually said in the article: ?Halfway through the season, there's a very good case to be made that the best baseball in all of baseball is being played in the National League Central.? Again, the timing is odd since St. Louis and Cincinnati just got spanked by the superior league. But, you can?t blame an author for a bad headline. Did SBN post a factual error in their headline? Or, is the NL Central actually the best division in baseball? Let?s take a crack at reaching a verdict after studying various evidence. *At the time the article was posted, here were the composite divisional win differentials for all six MLB groups. Since every divisional game counts as a win for one team and a loss for another, win differentials show you how that division is performing against outsiders. AL East +33 NL Central +22 NL West -8 AL West -11 AL Central -12 NL East -24 For several years now, the American League has been the superior of the two leagues. So, if there are any hidden kickers in there, they would favor the AL East in this debate because of schedule strength. Perhaps the leagues have pulled even now. I don?t know of anyone who believes the NL is now superior. For that one attempt at divining an answer, we get a pretty clear verdict for the AL East. *What if we go to the SuperLeague approach and only count what teams are doing against opponents who are at .500 or better (easy to look up daily on the expanded standings pages at Baseball-Reference). At the time the article was posted, we had? AL EAST VS. .500 OR BETTER Baltimore 28-18 Boston 26-19 Tampa Bay 26-26 NY Yankees 21-26 Toronto 27-32 That?s seven games over .500 for the division?which is hard to do because most divisions have one or two lousy teams who get rocked in this stat. Last place Toronto is still doing much better than third place Cincinnati over in the NL Central (note that Toronto?s win today over Detroit puts them back at .500, which means what those other teams did vs. Toronto will be in the statline if you go to baseball-reference on Tuesday?games vs. Toronto weren?t being counted at the time the article was posted because Toronto was a game below .500). ? Pittsburgh 18-14 St. Louis 15-15 Cincinnati 15-26 Chicago Cubs 13-27 Milwaukee 11-29 The games the Pirates/Cards/Reds play against each other split out because a win for one is a loss for another. The division as a whole is 39 games below .500 in this sampling devoted only to the upper half of the sport. Another reminder that the Reds have been horrible vs. quality this year. The Cards are only 50/50 here. Given what we know about the recent difference between leagues, and what we?ve learned over the years on these pages about the illusions that can be created by teams who dominate soft schedules, I?m going to be solidly in the corner of the AL East. And, to me?this is a verdict from being a judge rather than a lawyer lobbying for something because those categories have always guided me in the right direction. Unbiased input I trust. But, maybe I?m biased with how I choose categories. Let?s see how a few other sources are ranking the teams. TEAMRANKINGS.COM: OVERALL POWER RANKING AL East: Boston (1), Baltimore (4), Tampa Bay (7), Toronto (12), NYY (13) NL Central: Pittsburgh (2), St. Louis (3), Cincinnati (11), Cubs (24), Milwaukee (26) ?Averages: AL East 7.4, NL Central 13.2 Medians: AL East 7, NL Central 11 The Cubs and Brewers are such stragglers that it?s going to be tough to get the Central up to ?best in baseball? by any objective measure. You see those, and the SBN headline really jumps out as nonsensical. ED FENG, THE POWER RANK AL East: Boston (1), Baltimore (4), Tampa Bay (8), Toronto (11), NY Yankees (16) NL Central: St. Louis (2), Pittsburgh (10), Cincinnati (12), Cubs (20), Milwaukee (26) Averages: AL East 8.0, NL Central 14.0 Medians: AL East 8, NL Central 12 Don?t think I buy that Pittsburgh is down at #10, even if there are reasons for skepticism about their current record. But, it?s not that big a deal in the big picture in terms of influencing the conclusions we?d draw from those five-team numbers. JOHAN KERI, GRANTLAND AL East: Boston (1), Baltimore (8), Tampa Bay (10), NY Yankees (14), Toronto (15) NL Central: St. Louis (2), Pittsburgh (3), Cincinnati (7), Cubs (23), Milwaukee (28) Averages: AL East 9.6, NL Central 12.7 Medians: NL Central 7, AL East 10 We get a win for the Central in the median category. Apparently Keri isn?t bothered by Cincinnati?s very poor record this year vs. teams at .500 or better. Still, the average goes to the East. To me?the preponderance of evidence favors the AL East. You can really ONLY make the case for the NL Central if you don?t hold Cincinnati?s poor performances vs. quality against them?AND use medians to eliminate the drag that the Cubs and Brewers cause. A stretch. There are other ways to look at the problem. I can?t say I?ve come up with one that would make the NL Central look any better. Bill James would answer some questions of this type (greatest brother combinations, greatest baseball families) with an approach that would single count the best guy, double count the second best guy, triple count the third best guy?and so on. That way, you wouldn?t get Babe Ruth and his adopted sister as ?best baseball siblings? just because Babe Ruth was so great. The approach let you marvel at the DiMaggio brothers because even the third best got a lot accomplished. Or, you could appreciate how many different Boone?s mattered over time. Use that for this debate and it?s a squash for the AL East because the Yanks and Jays re so much better than the Cubs and Brewers. That would actually magnify the impact of the bottom of the division and make a much stronger case for the AL East. What?s your verdict? You know mine. One of the great things about twitter is that you can follow various publications for alerts when articles go up. One of the worst things about twitter is that you?re bombarded by blowhard headlines that are often outright false, and don?t capture what the author was actually saying. Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence | |||
Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: College Football Season O/U Wins | |||
| Submitted by Teddy CoversThe college football betting market matures slowly over the summer months compared to the NFL betting marketplace.? We?ve had NFL Week 1 lines and College Football Game of the Year lines since May, both here in Vegas and offshore.? The NFL season win market wasn?t far behind, with most of the leading indicator sportsbooks standing knee deep in season win wagers by the second week of July. But with 125 FBS teams on the betting board, the sportsbooks take more time doing their homework and research before posting a bevy of NCAA Football lines for the upcoming season.?? The Golden Nugget was the first to market with their Games of the Year lines last month.? The first college football season win numbers were posted offshore less than two weeks ago, with the 5Dimes sportsbook emerging as the global market leaders for 2013.? Here in Vegas, we?re not far away from heavyweights Cantor Gaming, the LVH Superbook and William Hill posting their first NCAA win totals. College win totals are a very different animal compared to the NFL.? You don?t see many NFL pointspreads higher than -14, and even that is a rare case.? Of the 16 games set for Week 1 of the regular season, only one (Baltimore at Denver on the Thursday Night national TV opener) is lined at higher than -7.????? The old adage about any NFL team being able to beat any other team on ?any given Sunday? has more than a little bit of truth to it.? Arizona finished 5-11 last year, but they won straight up at New England.? The Eagles finished 4-12, but one of those wins came against the Super Bowl champion Ravens.? I could list a dozen more major upsets from last year alone. In college, the best teams are routinely four, five or six touchdown favorites against the weaker foes on their schedule.? Even in conference play, it?s not unusual to see a top notch squad like Alabama to be favored in those pointspread ranges.? The Crimson Tide were 30+ point favorites against an Ole Miss team that won a bowl game by three touchdowns over Pitt last December.? They were road favorites of 20 points or higher against the likes of Tennessee, Missouri and Arkansas. Alabama probably isn?t the best example to use to illustrate my points, because it?s not just ?ultra-elite? teams like Nick Saban?s squad that are routinely favored in those type of pointspread ranges.? Florida State was a two TD favorite or higher in 13 of their 14 games last year.? Oregon laid -20 or higher nine times. Boise State has been 20+ point favorites in 29 of their last 43 regular season games. What does all of this pointspread info tell us about season win totals?? Simple ? there?s a lot less wiggle room for college football season win totals than there is compared to the NFL.? When we look at the teams near the top or the bottom of the college football world, more than half of their games are near guaranteed wins or losses from a straight up perspective.? Oregon is not going to lose SU at home to Cal, Washington State or Utah.? Nicholls State isn?t going to beat them once in 100 hypothetical matchups, and road games at Virginia or Colorado aren?t really tests.? Before the season starts ? before fall camp starts ? you can assume a minimum of six wins for the Ducks, even in a near worst case scenario.? It?s a similar story with Alabama, or Florida State or Boise, to stick with the team examples listed above. As a result, the standard NFL conversion formula (a half win worth approximately 50 cents of juice) doesn?t apply to the college football world.? In NCAA win total action, a half win difference between sportsbooks can be routinely priced as being worth a full dollar or more in extra vig.? And professional bettors have no hesitancy laying a full dollar?s worth of extra juice to bet a top team Over 10 wins instead of Over 10.5, for example.? Getting that ?push protection? is worth the cost! As the college football season win marketplace starts to mature over the next few weeks, we?ll see the lack of wiggle room for the books on full display, with bettors taking advantage of any arbitrage opportunities available as soon as they show up.? From a return-on-investment perspective, getting the best of those half win differentials between books makes an enormous difference in the professional bettor?s bottom line. I?ve been doing my college football homework in recent weeks, prepping for marketplace maturity.? Here are two Overs and two Unders that caught my eye from the offshore openers at 5Dimes.? The juice is current as of early Monday morning on July 8th. Arkansas Over 5.5 wins (-140) ? Indiana Over 5.5 wins (-210)? UNLV Under 4.5 wins (-175)? West Virginia Under 5.5 wins (+175)? Follow me on Twitter @teddy_covers Tags: College Football Teddy Covers | |||
Sports Betting Podcast 7-8-2013 with Handicappers Rob Veno and Teddy Covers | |||
| Tags: MLB College Football Rob Veno Teddy Covers | |||
MLB Handicapper Free Pick: Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins | |||
| Submitted by Rob VenoAtlanta (Minor) -155 at Miami (Slowey) O/U 8? Recommendation: Over After opening the season with 10 quality starts in his first 13 outings, Atlanta?s Mike Minor is now in the midst of one of those rough patches that have plagued his young career. Minor?s recent four game stretch has totaled 24 innings, 37 hits, 58 total bases, 5.63 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. He?s had difficulty getting through innings as evidenced by the fact that he?s averaged facing 4.5 batters per inning in four of his last five starts after averaging only 3.84 in his 12 prior starts. Minor?s track record indicates he?s not a pitcher who quickly snaps out of funks which could bode well for Miami which has scored four or more runs in 10 of its last 15 games. Atlanta?s offense has supported Minor well all season scoring 5.35 runs per game while batting .282 and recording an .816 OPS. Those numbers indicate the Braves could have success against Miami?s Kevin Slowey who?s now taking the rotation spot vacated by the trade of Ricky Nolasco. Slowey threw two innings of relief vs. Atlanta just six days ago and was lit up for four runs. The righty has not had much success against the Braves and his contact style of pitching isn?t a good fit for their strikeout prone, LH dominant power hitting traits. Expect each of these teams to score plenty of runs tonight and get this game over the total.?? Tags: MLB Atlanta Braves Miami Marlins Rob Veno | |||
MLB Handicapping: Analyzing Offenses Over the Past Four Weeks | |||
| Submitted by Stat Intelligence Because a lot of the ?four-max? data that we?ve been presenting on Sunday nights has become fairly locked in halfway into the season, I wanted to focus instead today on what?s been happening the past month. There are some fairly established surges and collapses that you should be aware of if you?re reporting on baseball as a writer or betting on baseball in Las Vegas. If this is your first time reading about the four-max approach (always some newbies popping in), here?s what we?re doing. *Only recording offense in the first five innings *Cutting off scoring at a maximum of four runs *Tabulating full season averages from that 0-1-2-3-4 scale This was started as a way to have a framework for handicapping ?first half? betting propositions in the markets (you can pick the winner or bet Over/Unders for just the first five innings of baseball games). But, it was clear pretty quickly that the numbers painted accurate pictures of all 30 offenses because you were seeing what each manager?s chosen lineup was doing against rotation caliber pitchers. I cut off at 4 four runs to keep outliers from polluting the numbers. A team can have a great game and score 7 early runs, but a bad game will never ?score? as bad as negative 3?so we use a scale with a median of 2 that reflects the reality of true expectations. A three-game series with 3-3-3 is a lot more valuable than one with 0-1-8, even though they both end up with the same average if you don?t use the cut-off. Turning that 8 into a 4 gives the offense credit for a good day?but doesn?t reward them extra for pounding a guy who didn?t have anything and the lousy long reliever who replaced him. The numbers you see below are for THE LAST FOUR WEEKS ONLY. This listing generally show the usual suspects in the usual places. But, you regular readers will notice right away when a team shows differently here than what we had seen in earlier season-to-date editions. AMERICAN LEAGUE *Detroit 2.69? *Boston 2.62? *Oakland 2.58? *Toronto 2.26? *Cleveland 2.23? *Tampa Bay Rays 2.19? *Minnesota 2.12? *Baltimore 2.08? *Texas 2.08? *Kansas City 1.92? *LA Angels 1.88? *Seattle 1.88? *NY Yankees 1.72? ?*Chicago White Sox 1.68? *Houston 1.52? ?NATIONAL LEAGUE ?*St. Louis 2.38? *Chicago Cubs 2.35? *Pittsburgh 2.33? *Philadelphia 2.04? *Washington 2.00? *Milwaukee 1.96? *LA Dodgers 1.92? *Cincinnati 1.88? *Miami 1.88? *Atlanta 1.76? *San Francisco 1.76? Three weeks ago, San Francisco scored 10 four-max runs in 7 games Two weeks ago, San Francisco scored 9 four-max runs in 6 games This week, San Francisco scored 9 four-max runs in 6 games Four of the nine runs two weeks ago game in one game against Pomerantz. Four of the nine runs this week came Saturday against Fife (?Citizen?s Array-yest?Citizen?s Array-yest!!). Really in trouble vs. quality pitching, which is true for the whole NL West right now. *NY Mets 1.74? *San Diego 1.65? *Arizona 1.48? Three weeks ago, Arizona scored 8 four-max runs in 6 games Two weeks ago, Arizona scored 5 four-max runs in 6 games This week, Arizona scored 15 four-max runs in 7 games, but 8 came the last two days against struggling pitchers A lot of teams are anxious for the All-Star Break I think. *Colorado 1.17 (road only); 2.31 home (where par is 3 at altitude)? | |||
Paul Pierce the latest pro athlete to compete at WSOP | |||
| In case you missed it, Paul Pierce was traded to the New Jersey Nets. Yeah, late June NBA trades aren't exactly on our radar either. But Pierce's appearance at the World Series of Poker $10,000 Pot-Limit Omaha event caught our eye. He made it to the third day and ended up finishing 147th. Kudos, Paul. Tags: Poker | |||
MLB Betting Notes: Philadelphia Phillies offense starting to produce | |||
Some numbers of note regarding the Philadelphia Phillies offense. April 1-May 31? June 1-July 7?
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MLB Gambling News: Streaks abound in the National League West | |
| The National League West has officially become a handicapping nightmare. Arizona lost eight of nine but bounced back with five straight wins. Los Angeles has crawled back into the division race having won 12 of 15. San Diego was hovering around .500 but just wrapped up a 1-9 road trip. San Francisco has lost five straight series to fall 6.5 games back of the D-Backs. And Colorado has lost six of seven and had two more players go down with injuries as Roy Oswalt left Sunday's start with a bum hamstring and Carlos Gonzalez hurt a finger. "We have to figure it out. We are banged up, but a lot of teams are. We have to find a way to win games, that's the bottom line," Weiss said. "We have to put together better at-bats. I don't care who's pitching. You can only give credit to the pitcher so much." "We are in a bad situation right now. We have to play better. We don't look the same. It's been a bad time. They totally played better than us," said Gonzalez, whose finger X-Ray didn't reveal a break, leaving him hopeful he can play Monday. ?Tags: MLB Colorado Rockies San Diego Padres San Francisco Giants Arizona Diamondbacks Los Angeles Dodgers | |
Canadian Football League Betting Free Play: Edmonton Eskimos at Hamilton Tiger-Cats | |
| Submitted by ICCEdmonton at Hamilton -7.5 O/U 55.5? Recommendation: Under The Hamilton Tiger-Cats spent much of their practice time leading up to this afternoon?s Week 2 matchup against Edmonton retooling and working on their defense. Last season, it was the team?s achilles heel and the problems on defense reared its ugly head once again last week when the Ticats allowed 39 points and nearly 500 total yards to the Toronto Argonauts. Head coach Kent Austin has made several changes on defense entering today?s game; some of them due to injuries and others due to underperformance. As a result, I expect a much stronger and better effort despite the fact they are still a work in progress on that side of the football. Anyone that watched Edmonton last week saw an offense that was pathetic and completely out of sync. Edmonton starting quarterback Mike Reilly was off target throughout the game and the Eskimos? offensive line was a disaster failing to open holes for the ground game or adequately protecting Riley who took several sacks in last week?s ugly 38-18 loss to Saskatchewan. Reilly completed just 48.6% of his passes with one touchdown and three interceptions. Even a suspect Hamilton defense should be able play much better as they are taking a major step down in class going from arguably the best offense in the CFL with Toronto to the worst. Hamilton?s offense is the strength of their team and it was on full display last week against Toronto as the Ticats and veteran quarterback Henry Burris put up 34 points. However,? most of that output came in the first half and once Toronto made their halftime adjustments on defense, Hamilton was held to just three points after the break. The ability to make plays at key times was a problem for Hamilton?s offense last season and while they can strike at any moment, today?s game will be a test for the Ticats offense because they will be facing what had been one of the best defenses in the CFL. The Eskimos didn?t really show it in their season opener as the defense was gashed for 39 points but the stats look worse than how things truly unfolded. Saskatchewan scored a touchdown off a Mike Reilly pick six and two more of their toucchdowns came directly off Edmonton turnovers which gave Saskatchewan terrific field position. All of that resulted in 21 of their 39 points. Edmonton?s defense didn?t play well but they were not as bad as the final score indicated. They will be facing a Hamilton offense that will be without a significant component today as wide reciever Andy Fantuz is out with a lower body injury. I usually don?t overreact to the absence of one player, particularly a receiver, but Fantuz led Hamilton in receiving yards and receptions last week ? he was clearly a prime target for Burris. His ability to find open spaces on the field and make big time catches can?t be replaced so Hamilton may rely more on the run game today with C.J. Gable and Lindsey Lamar. I think we have a little bit of inflation with this total sitting at 55.5 after a 4-0 Over sweep in Week 1. Two of the three Week 2 games have gone under and I look for that mini trend to continue. Play it UNDER. Tags: CFL Edmonton Eskimos Hamilton Tiger-Cats Ian Cameron | |
College Football Betting: 5 Things I Just Noticed About The Big Ten | |
| Submitted by Stat Intelligence I?ve started preparing for college football. Which means?making humongous plans for what I?m going to try to keep track of only to find out in September that my eyes were bigger than my stomach. I?m at least planning to keep track of drive points (those scored on drives of 60 yards or more) out of the gate this season. If I get a bunch of charts made up for that in July and August, it won?t be too onerous a time commitment on the fly once games start. Today I was playing around in the Big 10. Here are 5 things I noticed.? Wisconsin has a new head coach (Gary Andersen from Utah State) Wisconsin will be breaking in another new quarterback Wisconsin?s first two games are against inert Massachusetts and Tennessee Tech Extremely untested Wisconsin will be a northern team forced to play in desert heat Arizona State returns its head coach and quarterback Arizona State?s supposed to have a strong front 7 defensively Arizona State is a popular pick to win the Pac 12 South This is a statement game for ASU, while Wisconsin will be more focused on Ohio State later in the month, Could the line move even more? Might already be a game you want to circle for second half consideration on the assumption Wisconsin might wilt in the heat (hint, go through and find the potential climate games now while you have time!)? *Northwestern has set up its schedule in a way that will allow it to find some form, then prepare for an ambush of Ohio State. Wildcats go? at Cal, vs. Syracuse, vs. Western Michigan, vs. Maine, bye Get everybody on the same page in the first three games, then get healthy and let the smartest players in the league gameplan. Ohio State comes to visit on October 5 in what will surely be one of the biggest home games in recent memory because NW usually isn?t this good when they play Ohio State?and Ohio State will probably be #1 or #2 in the country at the time. An opener of Ohio State -8 was bet down to -7. This may be Ohio State?s toughest real world test this year because they?ll have just played Wisconsin without a week off, while Northwestern has loaded the dice the best they know how. Tags: College Football Big Ten Stat Intelligence | |
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| Tags: College Football Big Ten Stat Intelligence | |
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